Bear with me, because this is long, but Im pretty passionate about the Mavs and their long term future so I have many valid thoughts Id like to share with this
community.
After watching what is going on in free agency this year, and really examining what other teams are doing to their teams, there is little doubt in my mind that the best thing for the Mavericks organization to do is to let Jason Kidd leave town for good.
Why? There are many, many reasons, but let me outline the obvious ones:
1) This is the kicker here: The Mavs are not winning a championship in 2009-2010 season.
Hell, they may have no shot at winning it in 2010-2011 depending on how the FA ball bounces. The league is simply too strong right now. The contenders are getting stronger, and the Mavs are at the upper portion of a mediocre 'middle of the pack' group of teams who have no chance of breaking through. Jason Kidd is not going to put you above a healthy Lakers line up of Kobe, Artest, Gasol, Odom and Bynum who will be in their 3rd year of good chemistry. You wont even convince me that Jason Kidd puts you over a healthy Spurs lineup of Parker, Ginobli, Jefferson, and Duncan. And, of course, we all know how Denver destroyed us in the playoffs. Kidd wasnt really much help in that series at all for a team in desperate need of athleticism and clutch scoring from more than one person. Perhaps by some miracle we do beat the defending champs in the playoffs (Gortat would have to reincarnate KG in his prime to accomplish that), you still have to face Cleveland, or Orlando, or the Celts in the Finals. Good luck with Kidd trying to keep up with any of those teams.
If Kidd is not going to win a championship this year, that puts you into the 2010-2011 season hoping for a big FA splash to pair with him and Dirk, and you still have the same-if not worse- problems of a PG thats a shade under 40 who cant play a lick of positional defense and cant keep up with the athletes that fill team rosters in the West and East contenders. Why do you think the Mavs drafted someone like Beaubois? The kid from France can obviously score, but that fact was largely ignored when all Cubes and Carlisle did was rave about his defensive capabilities and freak athleticism in the draft press conferences. Theres a reason theyre so excited. You need long, quick, and athletic guys who can defend in the modern NBA to win championships. Kidd is not that player anymore, and will not suddenly be that player in the next 2-3 seasons.
So, again- if signing Kidd is simply a win-now mentality, and you're not going to, well, WIN NOW...what are you really singing him for? The best answer I can think of is a tutor for Beaubois.
2) It prolongs the development of your Future
I've really tried to not be a bandwagon jumper about this kid, but from what Ive heard from his private workouts, and from what Ive seen in the youtube and other videos out there of this guy playing, Im really thinking he can be a legit and effective starting point guard for an NBA team. Since Im behind the notion that signing Kidd for a 'win-now' strategy is a bad move since we wont be winning anything here in the next 1-2 seasons, I feel that the overall long term development of the Mavericks is harmed by letting Kidd sit and waste away here in Dallas for the next 3 years.
If we have learned anything from the Boston situation, it is that Rajon Rondo is a stud that really drives that team into motion with good scoring, great defense, and great playmaking. He was a young, inexperienced, but tremendously athletic point guard when he first entered into the league. However, instead of coddling him, they allowed him a great portion of playing time in his first season, and just let him play and learn the NBA game. My problem with the Mavs is that they do too much coddling and structured development of players. While there are cons to throwing certain players to the wolves in their first year or two, Im a firm believer that it helps more than it hurts, and the FO of your team can see and learn (much faster btw) who are your real ballers, and who needs to just pack and head overseas for a decent basketball career.
What do we lose by putting the young frenchman in 22-28 minutes a game this year splitting time between him and Terry, and allowing him to learn the pace and intracasies of the NBA game? We're not winning the championship this year anyways folks, so wouldnt you rather have your young stud spend dead time learning and developing the skills that will allow him to be a stud PG for the Mavs for the next 10+ years? If anything, in the 2010-2011 season the Mavs 'may' need not worry about the PG situation after Beaubois has a full year to learn Carlisle's system and the NBA game. Who knows...He may put up Rondo like numbers (or better in terms of scoring since hes a better shooter) and he can start in 2010 with no second thought, and what would happen then? The triangle of trust are touted as geniuses like Ainge. Basketball is not like Football or Baseball where you spend years grooming players before they are ready. You have to give your players PT to learn the speed and important facets of the game real-time.
I just think you have to sacrifice this year, not care about the record, and let your young guys (mainly Gortat and Beaubois) develop into real players and learn how to lose, and eventually- win. Whats the worst thing than can happen? We dont make the playoffs and get a good draft pick? I wouldnt mind adding a high first rounder to the Dirk, Howard, Gortat, Bass, Terry, Beaubois talent base we have here in the form of a young 2 guard. If we dont do this, I dont see Beaubois getting the right opportunity to start if hes good enough because of Kidd's ego and contract. I just see it as a sticky situation if Beaubois turns out to be the stud I think he can be.
3) Thats 25+ million on your books for the next three years for a 35+ year-old
This is perhaps the most obvious one. I dont really need to say much about the Mavericks overpaying an over-the-hill point guard who is not going to lead them to a championship, as I think this is a pretty dead horse. I mean heck, if you're going to sign Kidd, make sure you're not giving away the damn bank for him. Maybe 27 million for the next three years for someone nearing 40? Talk about bad investments. Cuban is usually pretty wise with his money, but I really think the FO has tunnel vision with this Kidd scenario unless several things happen (and even then Im still a skeptic) : 1) they acquire a superstar 2 guard via trade thats on-par or more skilled than Vince Carter (dont ask me how this would ever happen) 2) Gortat avergaes 15-18 points and 10 rebounds per 3) They finally get rid of a fragile Josh Howard for a small forward that can slash, shoot 3's, and get to the free throw line more efficiently in the clutch.
I dont see any of that happening immediately next year to take advantage of Kidd's passing skills and deteriorating play-making and scoring abilities. If you cant do all of those things to surround Kidd with the parts he needs to cover up his inadequecies, then I see no point of giving a player as old as Kidd that large of a contract when that money could come in handy in the 2010 FA market, the draft, and via trades if we need it. Thats a lot of money and contract years you're tying up for a guy bringing you nothing if you're not surrounding him with running, scoring athletes. Usually in the Mavs case, when we really need the money to go out and get an available stud, we dont have it to spend....Hopefully this will be a lesson to the Dallas FO, but I doubt it.
4) It prolongs the Dirk era? Gimme a break.
Jason Kidd isnt prolonging anything. 9 points and 8 assists arent Chris Paul numbers. Theyre not even Rajon Rondo, Andre Miller, Billups, Mo Williams, Parker, Nelson, or even Jose Calderon type numbers....you get my drift? 5-7 years ago, Kidd by himself may have made a larger impact on the season and playoff runs. 9ppg and 8apg are 'ok' by today's PG standards, but not compared to the studs hes competing against. And please dont give me the 'intangibles' crap that Cubes and Nellie would like for everyone to believe. A 15 point - 10 assist point guard is simply better than a 9ppg and 8apg guy. A 20 point 12 assist point guard is vastly better than a 9 point 8 assist point guard. Numbers dont lie. Its when you have a 20 ppg PG that only dishes 3 dimes a game where you have to start saying numbers can be a bit misleading in terms of leading a team.
But, for arguments sake, lets say even if the Mavs do go on a FA buying frenzy in 2010 - theres still no gaurantee that you'll be competing in the Finals, which is why I think Dallas needs to take a deep breath and focus on acquiring young, explosive, but skilled offensive and defensive players who know how to play the game and that we can count on in the years to come instead of scrambling to buy FA's to pair with a grey-haired Kidd.
Anyone remember the Lakers team who brought in Gary Payton and Karl Malone? Anyone watch the Yankees for the past 8+ years? You cant buy your way to championships via free agency in any sport really. You either build the core of your team through smart drafting, or get lucky in a trade scenario (or if you're the Lakers, just wink and do a back-door deal for nothing that changes the scope of the NBA for the next 5 years). If the Mavs are looking to get lucky like the Lake Show (as Cuban once hinted at), I think theyre are really wasting their time, and really putting too much faith a bad economy helping them mastermind their way to picking up another superstar without giving up something significant.
Now, if I could only get the motivation to make my 'Get Rid of J-Ho While You Still Can' post. ;)
After watching what is going on in free agency this year, and really examining what other teams are doing to their teams, there is little doubt in my mind that the best thing for the Mavericks organization to do is to let Jason Kidd leave town for good.
Why? There are many, many reasons, but let me outline the obvious ones:
1) This is the kicker here: The Mavs are not winning a championship in 2009-2010 season.
Hell, they may have no shot at winning it in 2010-2011 depending on how the FA ball bounces. The league is simply too strong right now. The contenders are getting stronger, and the Mavs are at the upper portion of a mediocre 'middle of the pack' group of teams who have no chance of breaking through. Jason Kidd is not going to put you above a healthy Lakers line up of Kobe, Artest, Gasol, Odom and Bynum who will be in their 3rd year of good chemistry. You wont even convince me that Jason Kidd puts you over a healthy Spurs lineup of Parker, Ginobli, Jefferson, and Duncan. And, of course, we all know how Denver destroyed us in the playoffs. Kidd wasnt really much help in that series at all for a team in desperate need of athleticism and clutch scoring from more than one person. Perhaps by some miracle we do beat the defending champs in the playoffs (Gortat would have to reincarnate KG in his prime to accomplish that), you still have to face Cleveland, or Orlando, or the Celts in the Finals. Good luck with Kidd trying to keep up with any of those teams.
If Kidd is not going to win a championship this year, that puts you into the 2010-2011 season hoping for a big FA splash to pair with him and Dirk, and you still have the same-if not worse- problems of a PG thats a shade under 40 who cant play a lick of positional defense and cant keep up with the athletes that fill team rosters in the West and East contenders. Why do you think the Mavs drafted someone like Beaubois? The kid from France can obviously score, but that fact was largely ignored when all Cubes and Carlisle did was rave about his defensive capabilities and freak athleticism in the draft press conferences. Theres a reason theyre so excited. You need long, quick, and athletic guys who can defend in the modern NBA to win championships. Kidd is not that player anymore, and will not suddenly be that player in the next 2-3 seasons.
So, again- if signing Kidd is simply a win-now mentality, and you're not going to, well, WIN NOW...what are you really singing him for? The best answer I can think of is a tutor for Beaubois.
2) It prolongs the development of your Future
I've really tried to not be a bandwagon jumper about this kid, but from what Ive heard from his private workouts, and from what Ive seen in the youtube and other videos out there of this guy playing, Im really thinking he can be a legit and effective starting point guard for an NBA team. Since Im behind the notion that signing Kidd for a 'win-now' strategy is a bad move since we wont be winning anything here in the next 1-2 seasons, I feel that the overall long term development of the Mavericks is harmed by letting Kidd sit and waste away here in Dallas for the next 3 years.
If we have learned anything from the Boston situation, it is that Rajon Rondo is a stud that really drives that team into motion with good scoring, great defense, and great playmaking. He was a young, inexperienced, but tremendously athletic point guard when he first entered into the league. However, instead of coddling him, they allowed him a great portion of playing time in his first season, and just let him play and learn the NBA game. My problem with the Mavs is that they do too much coddling and structured development of players. While there are cons to throwing certain players to the wolves in their first year or two, Im a firm believer that it helps more than it hurts, and the FO of your team can see and learn (much faster btw) who are your real ballers, and who needs to just pack and head overseas for a decent basketball career.
What do we lose by putting the young frenchman in 22-28 minutes a game this year splitting time between him and Terry, and allowing him to learn the pace and intracasies of the NBA game? We're not winning the championship this year anyways folks, so wouldnt you rather have your young stud spend dead time learning and developing the skills that will allow him to be a stud PG for the Mavs for the next 10+ years? If anything, in the 2010-2011 season the Mavs 'may' need not worry about the PG situation after Beaubois has a full year to learn Carlisle's system and the NBA game. Who knows...He may put up Rondo like numbers (or better in terms of scoring since hes a better shooter) and he can start in 2010 with no second thought, and what would happen then? The triangle of trust are touted as geniuses like Ainge. Basketball is not like Football or Baseball where you spend years grooming players before they are ready. You have to give your players PT to learn the speed and important facets of the game real-time.
I just think you have to sacrifice this year, not care about the record, and let your young guys (mainly Gortat and Beaubois) develop into real players and learn how to lose, and eventually- win. Whats the worst thing than can happen? We dont make the playoffs and get a good draft pick? I wouldnt mind adding a high first rounder to the Dirk, Howard, Gortat, Bass, Terry, Beaubois talent base we have here in the form of a young 2 guard. If we dont do this, I dont see Beaubois getting the right opportunity to start if hes good enough because of Kidd's ego and contract. I just see it as a sticky situation if Beaubois turns out to be the stud I think he can be.
3) Thats 25+ million on your books for the next three years for a 35+ year-old
This is perhaps the most obvious one. I dont really need to say much about the Mavericks overpaying an over-the-hill point guard who is not going to lead them to a championship, as I think this is a pretty dead horse. I mean heck, if you're going to sign Kidd, make sure you're not giving away the damn bank for him. Maybe 27 million for the next three years for someone nearing 40? Talk about bad investments. Cuban is usually pretty wise with his money, but I really think the FO has tunnel vision with this Kidd scenario unless several things happen (and even then Im still a skeptic) : 1) they acquire a superstar 2 guard via trade thats on-par or more skilled than Vince Carter (dont ask me how this would ever happen) 2) Gortat avergaes 15-18 points and 10 rebounds per 3) They finally get rid of a fragile Josh Howard for a small forward that can slash, shoot 3's, and get to the free throw line more efficiently in the clutch.
I dont see any of that happening immediately next year to take advantage of Kidd's passing skills and deteriorating play-making and scoring abilities. If you cant do all of those things to surround Kidd with the parts he needs to cover up his inadequecies, then I see no point of giving a player as old as Kidd that large of a contract when that money could come in handy in the 2010 FA market, the draft, and via trades if we need it. Thats a lot of money and contract years you're tying up for a guy bringing you nothing if you're not surrounding him with running, scoring athletes. Usually in the Mavs case, when we really need the money to go out and get an available stud, we dont have it to spend....Hopefully this will be a lesson to the Dallas FO, but I doubt it.
4) It prolongs the Dirk era? Gimme a break.
Jason Kidd isnt prolonging anything. 9 points and 8 assists arent Chris Paul numbers. Theyre not even Rajon Rondo, Andre Miller, Billups, Mo Williams, Parker, Nelson, or even Jose Calderon type numbers....you get my drift? 5-7 years ago, Kidd by himself may have made a larger impact on the season and playoff runs. 9ppg and 8apg are 'ok' by today's PG standards, but not compared to the studs hes competing against. And please dont give me the 'intangibles' crap that Cubes and Nellie would like for everyone to believe. A 15 point - 10 assist point guard is simply better than a 9ppg and 8apg guy. A 20 point 12 assist point guard is vastly better than a 9 point 8 assist point guard. Numbers dont lie. Its when you have a 20 ppg PG that only dishes 3 dimes a game where you have to start saying numbers can be a bit misleading in terms of leading a team.
But, for arguments sake, lets say even if the Mavs do go on a FA buying frenzy in 2010 - theres still no gaurantee that you'll be competing in the Finals, which is why I think Dallas needs to take a deep breath and focus on acquiring young, explosive, but skilled offensive and defensive players who know how to play the game and that we can count on in the years to come instead of scrambling to buy FA's to pair with a grey-haired Kidd.
Anyone remember the Lakers team who brought in Gary Payton and Karl Malone? Anyone watch the Yankees for the past 8+ years? You cant buy your way to championships via free agency in any sport really. You either build the core of your team through smart drafting, or get lucky in a trade scenario (or if you're the Lakers, just wink and do a back-door deal for nothing that changes the scope of the NBA for the next 5 years). If the Mavs are looking to get lucky like the Lake Show (as Cuban once hinted at), I think theyre are really wasting their time, and really putting too much faith a bad economy helping them mastermind their way to picking up another superstar without giving up something significant.
Now, if I could only get the motivation to make my 'Get Rid of J-Ho While You Still Can' post. ;)
